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A study released by the National Institute of Drug Abuse reports that underage drinking has continued a precipitous decline for the fourth year in a row. Researchers are still investigating why this may be the case, suspecting that the aftershocks of COVID-19 may have a large role to play.
According to the Monitoring the Future survey, a record-high number of teens say they've never consumed alcohol, including 82% of respondents in the eighth grade, 68% of 10th graders and 51% of 12th graders. First-time users also appear to be decreasing. In 2024, 26% of 10th graders and 42% of 12th graders reported consuming alcohol in the past year; those numbers are down from 46% and 75% in 1997, respectively.
“This trend in the reduction of substance use among teenagers is unprecedented,” said Nora D. Volkow, M.D., director of NIH’s National Institute on Drug Abuse. “We must continue to investigate factors that have contributed to this lowered risk of substance use to tailor interventions to support the continuation of this trend.”
At first glance, one might assume that underage consumers are resorting to alternatives. The past few years have witnessed a surge in marijuana legalization alongside the proliferation of nicotine products like pouches and vapes, some of which have been accused of marketing to youth with sweet and fruity flavors.
The Monitoring the Future survey reports that this is not the case, however. In addition to reductions in marijuana and nicotine use, the study found that the number of students who abstained from all substances over the past 30 days reached a record high in 2024.
The prevalence of binge drinking has reportedly been cut almost in half over the past 10 years, while peer disapproval of binge drinking has made marginal gains following a record high of 76% in 2018.
The most obvious cause lies in the COVID-19 pandemic, which effected an immediate decline in underage substance use as lockdown orders were issued across the country. What's surprising to researchers, however, is that those declines appear to have not only stuck but accelerated. Researcher Richard Miech speculates that a delay in "drug use initiation" has had a compounding effect, leading subsequent generations to reconsider their choices.
“I expected adolescent drug use would rebound at least partially after the large declines that took place during the pandemic onset in 2020, which were among the largest ever recorded,” added Richard Miech, team lead of the Monitoring the Future study. "Many experts in the field had anticipated that drug use would resurge as the pandemic receded and social distancing restrictions were lifted. As it turns out, the declines have not only lasted but have dropped further.”
Underage drinkers aren't the only ones. A 2023 Gallup poll found that 65% of adults under the age of 35 report drinking, down from 72% two decades prior. These numbers line up neatly with a growing trend toward sobriety, particularly evidenced by rallying cries like Dry January and Sober October. A record-high 25% of Americans say they participated in Dry January in 2023; the number is expected to increase next year.
As young adults trade cocktails for mocktails, underage consumers may be picking up the message. A growing category of nonalcoholic, adaptogenic and otherwise "alternative" drinks has gradually gained market share in the U.S. over the past few years, positioning sobriety not only as a choice, but a fashionable alternative. Over time, these products may hold enough sway to discourage first-timers — particularly underage drinkers — from picking up alcohol to begin with.
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