A general view of a winery field during the end of the harvest season in Leutesdorf, Germany, on November 3, 2024 (Photo: Ying Tang/NurPhoto via AP)
Wine output in the northern and southern hemispheres is slated to reach its lowest point since 1961, according to an annual report released by the International Organization of Vine and Wine on Friday.
Global output is estimated to reach between 227 million and 235 million hectolitres (mhl) in 2024, with the mid-range pegged at 231 mhl. The mid-range figure represents a 2% decline from 2023 and a drop of 10% compared to the 10-year average.
The OIV says that adverse climate conditions are to blame.
"As with 2023, extreme or atypical meteorological events are the key influence on global production, with early frosts, heavy rainfall, and prolonged drought dramatically impacting vineyard productivity," the OIV wrote. "This underscores the wine industry’s increasing vulnerability to climate variability, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive strategies and resilient viticultural practices in the face of escalating environmental uncertainties."
France, the world's largest wine producer in 2023, has been hit especially hard. The country's output is slated to reach 36.9 mhl in 2024, down a drastic 23% from the previous year. One of the main culprits was — surprisingly enough — an abundance of rain. Spring 2024 was one of the wettest seasons on record in France, leading to an outbreak of downy mildew fungus that devastated crops in hotpots like Bordeaux, Chablis and Alsace.
Italy is on track to reclaim its position as the world's largest wine producer, increasing its output by 7% from 2023. Spain, the third-largest producer, is projected to reach a promising 18% increase. However, both countries remain below the five-year average for the region.
Germany, Portugal, Romania, Czechia and Austria are all reportedly on the decline.
Elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, results were mixed. Output in the USA, historically the world's fourth-largest producer, is forecasted to decline by 3%. An outbreak of downy mildew in Switzerland is projected to reduce the country's output by 20%, while stable farming conditions in Russia secured the country a 5% increase.
Overall output in the Southern Hemisphere slumped to 46 mhl, the lowest on record since 2004. Chile, Brazil, New Zealand and South Africa are projected to report some of the biggest declines, while Argentina and Australia managed to rebound from a tough 2023.
Despite the dour forecast, the OIV speculates that extenuating conditions may level out the playing field, if only slightly. Alcohol producers of all types have reported declining sales over the past year attributed in large part to COVID-19 aftershocks, inflation and trade tensions. A simultaneous trend toward sobriety, spearheaded by movements like Dry January, means that consumption continues to reach lower and lower.
"At the same time, a second consecutive year of reduced production, occurring within a market context of decreasing global consumption and high inventory levels, could contribute to a market equilibrium mitigating the immediate economic impact of reduced production for some regions or producers," the OIV added.
