Five ship-to-shore cranes and gangs of longshoremen work the container ship YM Witness at the Georgia Ports Authority's Port of Savannah, Sept. 29, 2021, in Savannah, Ga. (Photo: AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton, File)
45,000 dockworkers from Maine to Texas are expected to go on strike by midnight, sending the alcohol industry into a panic as brands scramble to prevent looming shortages.
Unionized employees, represented by the International Longshoremen’s Association, have come to a standstill on contract negotiations with the U.S. Maritime Alliance. Points of dispute reportedly include wage increases and assurances against automation. Unless an agreement is reached by 12:01 am on Oct. 1, as many as 36 ports along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico are slated to close their doors.
The affected ports total half of the nation's ocean shipping capacity. A J.P. Morgan analysis projects that the walkout could cost the U.S. economy as much as $5 billion per day.
Were the strike to last longer than a month, experts predict that fruits, vegetables and vehicles would be the hardest hit. Chris Swonger, CEO of the Distilled Spirits Council, says that booze may too fall victim to a shipping shutdown.
“This potential strike comes at the worst time,” Swonger told CNN on Sunday. “We’re leaning into the big selling time of the year for spirits, leading into the holidays. Even a day strike could have significant repercussions [...] "You could see impact at the liquor store within the month, depending upon the inventory."
Here's which products may face shortages in the foreseeable future:
First and foremost comes French exports, namely wine, champagne and cognac. Throughout 2022, the U.S. imported $2.67 billion in hard liquor and $2.55 billion in wine from France, with recognizable names like Hennessy, Moët & Chandon and J.P. Chenet leading the pack. In the event of a strike, however, some brands would be affected more than others. Since retailers have already stocked up on their holiday inventory, "giftables" like high-end cognac and champagne would likely remain safe until at least January.
Other markets include the U.K., responsible for $1.76 billion in hard liquor imports, and Ireland, responsible for $485 million. The countries are best known for scotch and Irish whiskey.
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It's unclear what to make of tequila. A handful of affected ports, particularly those in Louisana and Texas, move large volumes of Mexican imports, though the primary product is reportedly industrial chemicals. Whether or not suppliers can pivot to on-land shipping is yet to be seen. The same question will be posed for Canada.
In other words, no need to stock up on Crown Royal or Jose Cuervo just yet.
Bacardi, however, might be a name to look out for. Ninety percent of rum consumed in the U.S. is imported, primarily from Caribbean countries and territories like Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Barbados, Jamaica and Bermuda. Beers like Modelo, brewed in Mexico, and Heineken, brewed in the Netherlands, may also take a hit.
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